The Coronavirus spread in Wuhan twice as fast as the original statistics

Funeral home staff removed the body of a person suspected of corona virus from a residential area in Wuhan in early February. Photo: AP.
Funeral home staff removed the body of a person suspected of corona virus from a residential area in Wuhan in early February. Photo: AP.

During the first phase of the outbreak in Wuhan, each person infected with the corona virus in the city would infect an average of 5.7 people.

Epidemiologists initially estimated that the average infected person in Wuhan in the early stages of the outbreak would infect 2-3 others. However, researchers in the US suggest that the chaos caused by soaring cases could cause data to be misleading and distort the overall picture of the disease.

The Los Alamos National Laboratory, in New Mexico, estimates that each case in Wuhan will infect an average of another 5.7 people. New US scientists’ findings could help community health professionals adjust their vaccine response and vaccination strategies, according to the South China Morning Post.

Specifically, the study published in Emerging Infectious Diseases, with its editors Steven Sanche and Lin Yen-ting, argued: “The lack of reagents for testing in the early stages of the outbreak, changes in levels surveillance and case identification, as well as an overcrowded health care system, have reversed estimates of disease development based on data. “

Los Alamos analyzed about 140 early stage patients outside Hubei Province to estimate the long-term infection in the epidemic at that time. Most of the first cases in other provinces had epidemiological links with Wuhan or were in this city.

“By the time the first cases outside Hubei were recorded, every province in China had a test kit and was actively monitoring people from Wuhan,” the study said.

“The health system outside of Hubei was not overcrowded at the time and was actively seeking the first positive case, resulting in a lower bias report,” the scientists said.

Local health authorities outside Hubei also made basic epidemiological information available on the patient’s route of infection. Since then, scientists have compared the death rate in Wuhan and found that the number of infected people in the epidemic center is about 2.3-3.3 days to double, rather than 6-7 days. millet initial.

Based on this study, the scientists also estimated that “herd immunity” for coronavirus could only occur if at least 82% of the population was infected. Early scientists, based on data released by China, suggested that “herd immunity” occurs when 60% of the population is infected with the corona virus.

A faster rate of transmission than previously estimated also implies that the number of asymptomatic cases in Wuhan actually constitutes a significant part of the source of the disease.