The world economy will take quite a long time to recover from an epidemic. In the best case scenario, the damage could be $ 3,300 billion while the worst case scenario is $ 82,000 billion.
According to a recent study by the University of Cambridge (UK), a new strain of corona virus – originating from Wuhan (China) could blow away $ 82,000 billion of the global economy in the next 5 years. believe.
Risk Research Center from Cambridge University said that if the economy is healthy enough to recover quickly in the next 5 years, the world could still lose about 3,300 billion USD due to the negative impact from pandemic. In the worst case scenario, losses could reach USD 82,000 billion if the world economy falls into recession.
However, experts agreed to forecast the damage in the next 5 years at about 26,800 billion USD, equivalent to 5.3% of global GDP.
The US – the world’s largest economic power, in the worst case scenario, could lose nearly US $ 20,000 billion – equivalent to 13.6% of GDP. Meanwhile, China, where the Covid-19 outbreak was started, is not much better than the forecast that losses could reach $ 19,000 billion. This figure for the UK – the European epidemic is at 2,500 billion USD.
Previously, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) had previously stated that the global economy could suffer losses of US $ 5,800-8,800 billion due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The agency also sets the scenario for the future of the global trade industry after a long time of closing borders between countries.
Accordingly, foreign trade is expected to decline from US $ 1,700-2,600 billion due to disruptions in the international supply chain.