According to the WHO calculation model, corona virus can kill 150,000 people and infect about a quarter billion people in Africa in a year, without urgent action.
The study was published in the journal BMJ Global Health on May 15 by the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa experts.
About 231 million people, or 22% of the African population, will be infected with the corona virus within 12 months. Most of them have little or no symptoms.
An estimated 4.6 million people will be hospitalized, of which 140,000 will be critical and 89,000 will be seriously ill. That would cause about 150,000 deaths unless urgent actions are taken, according to the study.
The study predicts what will happen to African countries in the year after the corona virus began to spread widely and sustainably.
The authors predict that the infection rate in Africa is still lower than in other places like Europe and the US, with the number of critical cases and deaths also lower, according to AFP.
The authors said that although many African countries have quickly implemented anti-epidemic measures, the health systems may still be overwhelmed.
“Our research model indicates that the risk to the health system will increase if anti-epidemic measures fail,” the authors write.
The authors make predictions based on the “set of factors” such as family size, population density, easy mobility, sanitation, weather and people’s health status. , such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and malnutrition.
Research shows that about 88% of patients will not know if they are infected with the virus due to mild symptoms or no symptoms.
The authors urge African countries to rapidly strengthen the health system, especially in major hospitals.